A Glimmer of Hope for Crypto Investors?

According to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, the chances of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year are higher than ever, even exceeding a popular betting market’s optimistic forecast. In January 2025, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket estimated the odds of a US Solana ETF listing at around 77%. Sigel has described these predictions as "underpriced," indicating that he believes there is more potential for growth.

A New Era for Crypto ETFs?

The industry’s expectations of more crypto ETF listings in the US have been fueled by President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Pro-crypto Trump wants to make America "the world’s crypto capital." Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes.

The Rise of Cryptocurrency Betting Platforms

Polymarket’s projected ETF listing odds have increased to approximately 84% as of January 2, according to its website. This surge in optimism is reflected across the industry, with several other popular betting platforms also predicting a banner year for cryptocurrency markets in 2025.

Why Are Crypto ETFs Becoming More Attractive?

In June 2024, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares sought permission from US regulators to list spot Solana ETFs. However, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reportedly challenged these plans in August, citing concerns that SOL qualified as a security rather than a commodity.

A New Structure for Crypto ETFs?

To overcome these regulatory hurdles, issuers believe success may hinge on whether proposed Solana ETFs can conform to an atypical "grantor trust" structure typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs – the only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to trade on US exchanges – use this very same structure.

Analysts’ Views on the Impact of Trump’s Presidential Win

Industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US. In November, shortly after Trump’s victory in the US presidential race, Sigel reportedly said the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now "overwhelmingly high."

The Rise of Polymarket and Cryptocurrency Betting Platforms

Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, clocking nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone, according to data from Dune Analytics. During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.

A Banner Year for Cryptocurrency Markets?

Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, with BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several new types of crypto ETFs listing in the US. As more investors become interested in cryptocurrency investments, it is becoming increasingly clear that there is a growing demand for innovative financial products like ETFs.

A New Era for Crypto Investments?

The success of Solana (SOL) ETF listings could pave the way for other cryptocurrencies to enter the US market. If these predictions come true, 2025 could be a transformative year for cryptocurrency investors and enthusiasts alike.