In a recent post on the X platform, Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck, expressed optimism about the prospects of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year. According to Sigel, the odds of such an event are even higher than what’s currently forecasted by Polymarket, a popular cryptocurrency prediction platform.

Polymarket’s Forecast: 77% Chance of SOL ETF Listing in 2025

On January 1st, Polymarket reported that the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 were around 77%. This forecast was met with skepticism by Sigel, who described it as "underpriced." In other words, he believes that the market is undervaluing the likelihood of a SOL ETF listing.

Sigel’s Optimism: Industry Expectations and Trump’s Pro-Crypto Stance

Sigel’s optimism is shared by many in the industry. With President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance, there’s a growing expectation that more crypto ETF listings will be approved in the US this year. In November, Trump won the presidential election, and shortly after, he expressed his desire to make America "the world’s crypto capital."

Prediction Markets: A Brief Overview

Prediction markets work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events. The prices of these contracts fluctuate dynamically based on expected outcomes. Polymarket’s forecast is just one example of how prediction markets can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential future developments.

Polymarket’s Odds: A 13% Increase in Just One Day

As of January 2nd, Polymarket’s projected ETF listing odds had increased to approximately 84%. This represents a significant increase of around 13% in just one day. While the market is still uncertain about the future prospects of SOL ETF listings, it’s clear that sentiment is shifting towards greater optimism.

VanEck and 21Shares’ Bid for Spot Solana ETFs

In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares submitted applications to list spot Solana ETFs on US exchanges. However, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reportedly challenged these plans in August, citing concerns that SOL qualified as a security rather than a commodity.

Industry Analysts See Trump’s Win as a Green Light for Crypto ETF Listings

The approval of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs is often cited as an example of how the SEC is gradually warming up to the idea of cryptocurrency-based ETF listings. With Trump’s pro-crypto stance, many industry analysts believe that more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval will be greenlit in 2023.

Sigel’s Comments: A "Green Light" for SOL ETF Listings

In November, Sigel reportedly said the odds of the US approving a SOL ETF in 2025 were now "overwhelmingly high." This statement suggests that industry insiders believe Trump’s win has provided a clear green light for crypto ETF listings.

Polymarket: The Most Popular Cryptocurrency Betting Platform

Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, with nearly $2 billion in trading volume recorded in December alone. According to data from Dune Analytics, Polymarket clocked this impressive figure while accurately forecasting Trump’s win and his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate during the November elections.

Bullish Bettors: 2025 Promises a Banner Year for Cryptocurrency Markets

With bettors wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, it’s clear that sentiment is shifting towards greater optimism. Many are predicting all-time highs for BTC and ETH, while several new types of crypto ETFs list on US exchanges.

Conclusion: A Bright Future for Crypto ETF Listings in the US?

While there are still challenges to overcome, Sigel’s optimism suggests that a Solana ETF listing in 2023 is more likely than ever. With Trump’s pro-crypto stance and industry expectations pointing towards greater regulatory approval, it’s possible that we’ll see a surge in crypto ETF listings in the US this year.

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